The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates have highlighted rising import levels at major US container ports, driven by fears of impending labour strikes and potential tariff increases under the incoming administration.
The latest Global Port Tracker report projects sustained high import volumes through spring 2025, as retailers aim to mitigate potential disruptions.
Jonathan Gold, NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, addressed the situation, stating, “Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy, and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can.”
Gold urged both port stakeholders to return to negotiations, adding, “We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike.”
Import volumes reflect strategic moves
US ports handled 2.25 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in October, reflecting a 9.3% year-over-year increase, according to the report. Despite a slight decline from September, this surge underscores retailers’ strategic decision to frontload goods ahead of potential disruptions.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted, “The window to frontload goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing. Then there are issues as President-elect Trump promises to increase tariffs when he takes office.”
Hackett also pointed to unresolved labour contract issues, including automation, as a key sticking point.
Looking ahead, the report forecasts November’s import volume at 2.17 million TEUs, a 14.4% year-over-year increase, and December at 2.14 million TEUs, up 14.3%. Total TEU volumes for 2024 are projected at 25.6 million, marking a 14.8% rise from 2023.
Economic and policy implications loom
The NRF-led coalition of trade associations has emphasised the economic risks of labour disputes and broad-based tariffs, sending a letter urging renewed negotiations at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. These ports are critical nodes in the US supply chain, handling significant volumes of goods destined for retail shelves.
Hackett further commented on the tariff uncertainty, explaining, “It is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then.”
Retailers face a delicate balancing act, navigating a volatile landscape where strikes and tariff increases threaten to disrupt supply chains and increase costs.
The Global Port Tracker underscores the need for strategic planning, with projections through April 2025 reflecting ongoing import pressure.
