The National Retail Federation (NRF) has released its forecast for retail sales in 2024, predicting a moderate increase between 2.5% and 3.5%.

This announcement came during the NRF’s fourth annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual discussion, focusing on the health of American consumers and the retail industry.

NRF president and CEO, Matthew Shay, expressed confidence in the resilience of consumers, stating: “The resiliency of consumers continues to power the American economy, and we are confident there will be moderate but steady growth through the end of the year.”

Comparison with previous years

The projected sales growth for 2024 compares with a 3.6% increase in sales, amounting to $5.1tn in 2023. This year's forecast aligns with the ten-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6%.

Non-store and online sales, included in the total figure, are anticipated to grow between 7% and 9% year-over-year, reaching a range of $1.47tn to $1.50tn. This indicates an increase from $1.38tn in 2023.

Economic outlook

The NRF projects a full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth of approximately 2.3%, slightly slower than the 2.5% in 2023. However, it is deemed strong enough to sustain job growth.

Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.2% year-over-year, attributed to a cooling economy and better balance in the labour and product market, along with declining housing costs.

The NRF's chief economist, Jack Kleinhenz, highlighted the importance of consumer spending in supporting the economy. However, concerns linger regarding whether consumer spending will maintain its resilience in 2024.

The tight labour market, which has been driving wage gains and consumer spending, is anticipated to ease, resulting in approximately 100,000 fewer jobs on average per month compared to 2023.