Imports at major U.S. container ports are expected to remain elevated as retailers work to bring in goods ahead of rising tariffs on China and potential trade restrictions on other countries, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
Retailers frontload imports to mitigate tariff impact
Retailers have been increasing imports in anticipation of tariff changes, with recent months seeing a rise in shipments due to the potential for an East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike in January.
Go deeper with GlobalData
On Saturday, former President Donald Trump announced tariffs of 25% on most goods from Canada and Mexico and 10% on Chinese imports. While tariffs on Canada and Mexico were suspended for 30 days, the levies on Chinese goods took effect on Tuesday.
Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, highlighted the complexities of adjusting supply chains, noting that shifting production to other countries requires significant time and capacity.
He also warned that increased tariffs could lead to higher prices for consumers and additional warehousing costs for businesses.
Impact on port traffic and future projections
According to the report, U.S. ports monitored by Global Port Tracker handled 2.14 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in December, a slight decrease of 0.9% from November but a 14.4% increase compared to the previous year.
The total import volume for 2024 reached 25.5 million TEU, marking a 14.8% increase from 2023 and the highest level since 2021.
Projections for the coming months suggest continued strong import activity. January is estimated to reach 2.11 million TEU, up 7.8% from the previous year, while February is forecast at 1.96 million TEU, reflecting a marginal 0.2% increase.
March imports are expected to rise by 11.1% year over year to 2.14 million TEU, with April and May also showing upward trends. However, June imports are projected to decline slightly by 0.6%.
Uncertainty over long-term effects of tariffs
While the immediate impact of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods is expected to be limited, Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, noted that long-term consequences could emerge.
Goods undergoing final manufacturing in Canada or Mexico but originating elsewhere might shift to direct maritime imports to the U.S. Additionally, potential increases in tariffs on Asian and European goods could raise prices and lead to reduced consumer demand, affecting port traffic.
Hackett also pointed out that the situation remains fluid, with uncertainty over whether the newly announced tariffs will be implemented, modified, or delayed. As a result, projections for North American imports over the next six months remain largely unchanged.
