NRF expects online shopping to be a primary contributor to overall retail sales growth for the 2024 holiday season. Credit: jamesteohart/Shutterstock.

The US National Retail Federation (NRF) has projected an increase in 2024 winter holiday sales between 2.5% and 3.5% compared with the previous year.  

This is expected to result in total holiday spending between $979.5bn and $989bn in November and December, up from $955.6bn in the same period of 2023. 

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According to data from the US Census Bureau compiled by the NRF, core retail sales in the US during the 2023 holiday season rose 3.8% to $964.4bn.  

NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said: “The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year. 

“The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.” 

The retail trade association expects a significant portion of retail sales growth to come from online shopping.  

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Online and other non-store sales are anticipated to reach between $295.1bn and $297.9bn in 2024, resulting in an 8% to 9% increase over $273.3bn in the same period of the previous year. 

The 2024 shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will be five days shorter than in 2023, at 26 days.  

NRF also expects the economic impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and the 2024 US presidential election, to impact sales. 

NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year.   

“Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously.” 

The NRF also forecasts that retailers will hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers in 2024, compared with 509,000 the year before.  

Retail chain Target recently revealed plans to hire 100,000 seasonal workers.