UK retail sales volumes in March 2025 experienced a downturn as the sector faces sixth straight month of decline, according to data from the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey.
The outlook for April suggests a continued dip, albeit at a reduced rate.
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Retail sales volumes in the month fell at a weightage balance [a calculation that assigns varying degrees of importance to the numbers in a data set] of 41%, compared to the 23% drop in February.
Expectations for April are set at a 30% decrease, suggesting a slightly less severe contraction.
Comparisons with typical seasonal sales also showed a negative picture, with March’s sales below par, aligning closely with February’s figures at -36%. The forecast for April remains pessimistic with an anticipated shortfall of 35%.
In the year to March, online retail sales volumes decreased 27%, maintaining a similar rate of decline to the previous month. The projection for April indicates an almost identical pace of reduction at 26%.
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By GlobalDataSales volumes for wholesale trade also contracted more rapidly at 29% in March, compared to a 19% drop in February. Wholesalers predict a slight improvement in April, with an expected decrease of 25%.
When considering total distribution sales volumes, which includes retail, wholesale and motor trades, there was an accelerated decline of 32% from the 26% fall reported in February.
Companies anticipate that April’s rate of decline will ease somewhat to 27%.
The survey further revealed that retail orders placed on suppliers remained at a negative of 38%, unchanged from February. The outlook for April is even more grim with an expected drop of 41%.
However, retail stock volumes were relatively robust in relation to anticipated demand in March, showing an increase of 20%, up from the growth of 16% seen in February.
CBI principal economist Martin Sartorius stated: “Annual retail sales volumes fell markedly in March and are expected to continue declining next month. Firms across the retail and wholesale sectors reported that global trade tensions and the Autumn [2024] Budget are weighing on consumer and business confidence, which is leading to reduced demand.”
Recent data from the British Retail Consortium and Opinium revealed that consumer confidence in the UK show signs of stabilisation, with Gen Z leading the way in anticipated spending increases.
