The National Retail Federation (NRF) has projected that US retail sales will experience a growth rate of 2.7% to 3.7% in 2025, amounting to a total of between $5.42tn and $5.48tn amid economic uncertainty, exceeding the figures from 2024.
The forecast was disclosed at NRF’s fifth annual State of Retail & the Consumer event, held in Washington from 2 to 3 April 2025.
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In comparison with the previous year’s growth rate of 3.6%, reaching $5.29tn in sales, the projection for 2025 aligns with the decade-long average growth rate before the Covid-19 pandemic, also at 3.6%.
The non-store and online retail segment is expected to grow by between 7% and 9%, potentially achieving sales between $1.57tn and $1.6tn.
This follows 8.1% growth in this segment the previous year, culminating in $1.47tn in sales.
Despite these positive trends, the NRF anticipates a slight deceleration in GDP growth for 2025 to just below 2%, a decrease from the 2.8% observed in 2024 and below recent years’ trends.
NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz stated: “While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slower but steady income growth, and solid household finances. Consumer spending is not unravelling.”
Addressing concerns over declining consumer confidence due to persistent inflation and tariff-related anxieties, Kleinhenz clarified that these factors are unlikely to prompt an immediate decline in spending.
“It’s the hard data on employment, income and tariff-induced inflation — not consumer sentiment — that supports our view of a slower trajectory for consumer spending,” he added.
For its retail sales forecasts, NRF excludes figures from automobile dealerships, gas stations and restaurants to concentrate on core retail performance.
The projections for 2025 consider an array of economic indicators such as employment rates, wage levels, disposable income figures, consumer credit availability and historical retail sales data.
NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay stated: “Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 — bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains. However, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence. Still, serving customers will remain retailers’ top priority no matter what the economic environment.”
NRF’s latest Retail Monitor, released in March 2025, revealed that retail spending experienced a slight decline in February, following concerns over tariffs and uncertain economic conditions.
