Retail sentiment regarding business conditions in the UK over the next three months deteriorated sharply in November 2024, with the pace of decline reaching its fastest rate in two years, according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey.
Retail sales volumes experienced a moderate decline of 18% in the year to November 2024 – a steeper year-on-year drop than the 6% decrease observed in October.
Go deeper with GlobalData
According to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, retailers expect the decline to continue in December at a faster pace of 29%.
In comparison to typical seasonal performance, sales volumes were deemed “poor,” mirroring sentiments from October, when there was a slight improvement from the decline of 25% to 22%.
Despite this, retailers anticipate a smaller deviation from seasonal norms in December at 15%.
Confidence among retailers regarding their business situation over the next three months deteriorated further in November, reaching a low of 21%, the most negative sentiment since November 2022’s 22%.
How well do you really know your competitors?
Access the most comprehensive Company Profiles on the market, powered by GlobalData. Save hours of research. Gain competitive edge.
Thank you!
Your download email will arrive shortly
Not ready to buy yet? Download a free sample
We are confident about the unique quality of our Company Profiles. However, we want you to make the most beneficial decision for your business, so we offer a free sample that you can download by submitting the below form
By GlobalDataInvestment plans for the coming year have also been scaled back, albeit less sharply, from 35% in August to 27%.
Retail employment saw its slowest rate of decline since November 2023 at 18%, improving from -25% in August.
The forecast for December 2024 suggests that headcount will remain relatively stable with only a marginal expected decrease of 2%.
The broader distribution sector, which encompasses retail, wholesale and motor trades, contracted by 17% in the year to November, a slight increase from the 12% contraction seen in October.
CBI lead economist Ben Jones said: “Retailers continue to report disappointing sales, though trading conditions have shown some improvement since the middle of the year. Yet the last time retailers felt this gloomy was back in November 2022, at the peak of the inflation shock. This makes the sharp decline in sentiment this month all the more telling.
“The stark rise in employers’ National Insurance next year will hit retailers hard. And the planned increase in business rates for higher-value properties will add significant operational costs for distribution centres.
“The government must urgently partner with businesses across the distribution sector to ease the cumulative cost burden, which threatens to weaken investment and hiring in the year ahead, as well as resulting in higher prices for consumers.”
