Sales drop exceeded expectations in April despite the potential impact of Easter’s early timing. Credit: blurAZ via Shutterstock.

UK retail sales volumes witnessed a steep decline in the year to April 2024, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey.  

Despite the potential impact of Easter’s early timing, the drop exceeded expectations, with predictions of a continued, albeit slower, decline in the coming month. 

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In April, retail sales volumes saw a 44% decline compared to a growth of 2% in March. 

Retailers anticipate the decline to continue next month but at a lower rate of 19%. 

The survey also revealed that retailers considered sales for April to be below the ‘average’ for the time of year, following a 20% drop.  

Expectations for May suggest sales will remain under seasonal norms at negative 25%. 

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During the month, orders placed on suppliers mirrored the decline in sales, with a sharp decrease of 49%. 

The trend is expected to continue next month with a 30% decline. 

Retailers indicated that their stock levels were above ‘adequate’ at 8% in April, a slight increase from March. 

CBI lead economist Alpesh Paleja said: “April’s sharp fall in retail sales was likely related to the earlier timing of Easter this year, so we should take it with a pinch of salt. Indeed, the sector is likely to benefit from some favourable tailwinds this year, as falling inflation continues to drive growth in households’ real earnings. 

“That being said, conditions do remain challenging on the ground. April’s fall in sales was faster than expected and retailers aren’t overly hopeful about the month ahead. 

“Despite inflation headwinds easing, the legacy of high costs remains with us. With business rates set to ramp up for larger businesses just as rises to the national living wage take effect, retailers are looking for additional support to provide some short-term relief.”