E-commerce giants like Amazon and Alibaba will focus increasingly on securing market share in emerging digital economies as the sector matures, a new report forecasts.
The 2025 edition of GlobalData’s E-commerce report outlines that the sector is growing rapidly. Worth $6.5trn in 2023, it is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 11% between then and 2028, ultimately hitting $11trn. It will have doubled in size between 2021 and 2028.
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Much of the growth will be attributable to the major players in the market, the report says.
“The e-commerce sector is bifurcated between giant internet ecosystems and everything else,” it explains. “The giants have many advantages, including substantial network effects from the sheer scale of their user base, artificial intelligence superiority, and in-house mobile payment platforms. Tencent, Amazon, Alphabet and Alibaba have gained strong footholds in global online markets.”
While these giants are now “virtually impossible to dislodge”, the report acknowledges that there is space in the sector for smaller players – and, indeed, that the major players facilitate that in some ways.
“The market has also been democratised by e-commerce-as-a-service providers, like Shopify, and marketplaces such as Amazon and Alibaba that allow anyone to become a merchant,” the report says. “As more and more sellers go online, the e-commerce landscape will continue to evolve to provide for the ever-expanding range of goods on offer.”
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By GlobalDataIt adds: “Mid-sized e-commerce players like Mercado Libre remain confined mainly to their domestic markets, while niche online retailers such as Yoox Net-a-Porter must find a way to differentiate to avoid being squeezed out. Traditional retail stores must fully integrate digital commerce and operate within customers’ preferred channels to survive.”
Elsewhere, the report notes that food and drink is the biggest sector for e-commerce transactions, accounting for 14% in 2023. It was followed by travel (12%), accommodation (11%) and clothing and footwear (11%).
“The rise of quick commerce, particularly within food and drink, allows consumers to have items delivered to their doorstep within the hour,” it explains. “This has driven a surge in online sales for food and drink.”
The report adds that travel saw the largest growth of the top four categories, with its total value of transactions increasing by 41% from $559bn in 2022 to $789bn in 2023.
“This was largely due to the revival of the tourism industry post-Covid,” it says. “Online travel agencies (OTAs) play a significant role in the tourism industry. OTAs allow travellers to search, compare, and book flights, hotels and other tourist services. Customers can learn more about what to expect from their experience by reading honest reviews. This can give them the confidence to book, knowing they are making decisions based on unbiased information.”
